Executive 6: NBA rights will go to Disney, Warner Bros. Discovery and Apple

One of the most closely watched media stories of 2024 will be what the National Basketball Association decides to do with its media rights. I reported in October that the NBA ideally wants three media partners with different packages of games.

Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery are the incumbents. Both want to maintain carriage relationships with the NBA, though both companies have also stressed they will be financially disciplined. The league is also looking for a robust streaming option. This is where Apple would fit in. (For what it’s worth, a second executive said he didn’t think Apple would even make a bid for NBA rights and thought NBCUniversal’s Peacock might end up with them.)

Executive 5: Disney will buy Candle Media and Kevin Mayer will position himself as a leading internal candidate to take over for Iger

One last Disney succession prediction! This person predicted Disney would purchase privately held Candle Media to acquire Moonbug Entertainment, the owner of CoComelon. Disney would then attempt to sell the remainder of Candle Media’s assets at fire-sale prices, the executive predicted.

Kevin Mayer, co-founder and co-chief executive officer of Candle Media, chairman of DAZN Group, speaks at the Milken Institute Asia Summit in Singapore, Sept. 29, 2022.

Candle Media is co-run by two former Disney executives, Kevin Mayer and Tom Staggs. This person’s guess is Mayer will return to Disney in a senior operating role to position himself as Iger’s top successor candidate while Staggs would leave the company.

Executive 4: Iger will name Dana Walden his successor as Disney CEO

If Iger does leave, he and the Disney board will need to name a successor. I reported in September that Iger plans to name a successor in early 2025 and give that person about 20 months to prepare for the role. If so, an announcement could come in late 2024. This executive predicted it will be co-Chairman of Disney Entertainment Dana Walden who gets the nod. Iger will again move to a chairman role when Walden takes over as CEO, just as he did with Bob Chapek in 2020.

A second person threw out a different name to keep an eye on: Andrew Wilson, CEO of Electronic Arts. This may seem out of left field, but here’s some inside baseball for you — the same executive to mention Wilson correctly predicted Iger would return as Disney CEO in 2022. Then last year, the person said Chris Licht wouldn’t last the year as CNN’s CEO and McCarthy would depart as Disney’s CFO. Three for three! So, maybe pay attention.

Executive 3: Nelson Peltz and Jay Rasulo will win their campaign to join the Disney board

One thing that may prevent Iger from extending his contract is if Nelson Peltz and Jay Rasulo get board seats. Last week, activist investor Peltz and former Disney Chief Financial Officer Rasulo criticized Disney’s failed succession planning as part of a statement announcing their intentions to run for Disney’s board of directors when nominees are selected next year.

“In our view, Disney’s board has failed to fulfill its essential responsibilities – overseeing the development of an effective strategy, planning for orderly succession, aligning executive pay with performance, and ensuring accountability for operational execution,” Peltz said in the statement.

This executive predicted Peltz and Rasulo will win their campaign and both join the board. A second person guessed only Rasulo will get a spot — perhaps via a settlement before a vote.

Executive 2: Bob Iger will, again, extend his contract as Disney CEO

Earlier this year, Disney CEO Bob Iger renewed his contract through 2026. Iger has said he actually plans to walk away from Disney forever when his contract is done. Iger has extended his contract as CEO to avoid retirement on five different occasions. Of course, when Iger left at the end of 2021, he said the same thing.

This executive predicted “fool me five times, shame on me.” Disney has many strategic problems that don’t have easy answers, such as figuring out how ESPN’s business fits in a direct-to-consumer world and how to wind down its legacy TV cable networks. Those problems demand a leader with a steady hand who understands the industry. Is there a better leader of Disney than Bob Iger? The Disney board has decided, over and over again, that there is not. Why would this time be any different?

Executive 1: Comcast will spin off NBCUniversal and merge it with Warner Bros. Discovery

Warner Bros. Discovery is approaching the two-year anniversary of its 2022 merger, when Discovery combined with WarnerMedia. That deadline is important for Reverse Morris Trust tax reasons. Without getting into the boring details, the important part is Warner Bros. Discovery can do another significant deal two years after the close of Discovery and WarnerMedia.

One executive targeted NBCUniversal as the most likely acquirer of Warner Bros. Discovery. This executive predicted Comcast CEO Brian Roberts would spin off NBCUniversal so that the new company would trade separately. But, Comcast (and Roberts) would keep a controlling stake of the ownership of the new entity.

A second executive suggested a more expansive scenario. Comcast will keep its theme parks business but sell the rest of the company in exchange for WBD common shares. Comcast will get a premium for the remainder of NBCUniversal in exchange for Roberts giving up his voting shares. Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav runs the combined company, with NBCUniversal film chief Donna Langley staying on to run an expanded studio.

Big M&A and Bob Iger’s future: 13 media executives make their anonymous 2024 predictions

It’s the most wonderful time of the year! It’s the third annual anonymous media and entertainment executive predictions list!

In honor of the 12 days of Christmas, I asked 12 past and current executives at the world’s biggest media and entertainment companies for one industry-shaking prediction for 2024. And then I asked one more because this is the holiday season, and I was feeling generous. A baker’s dozen! Actually, I asked a few more, but some overlapped.

Quite a few of last year’s predictions were accurate. Disney Chief Executive Bob Iger did extend his contract. Christine McCarthy stepped down as Disney’s chief financial officer. Paramount Global hasn’t been sold, but controlling shareholder Shari Redstone is now in talks to sell National Amusements. Google’s YouTube acquired the National Football League’s “Sunday Ticket” package.

Some weren’t as good. The media industry didn’t bounce back from recession as well as one executive hoped. Netflix didn’t merge with another company. Apple didn’t ban TikTok from its app store.

Alas, hope springs eternal with a new year.

Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount Global in early merger talks

Source tells CNBC Warner Bros. Discovery looking to merge with Paramount Global

Warner Bros. Discovery and rival Paramount Global are in early merger talks, sources familiar with the matter told CNBC.

Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav and Paramount CEO Bob Bakish met Tuesday to discuss the contours of a possible deal, said the sources, who declined to be named since the talks are private. The discussions are preliminary, and a deal may not materialize.

Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount declined to comment.

The news comes as speculation about Paramount’s future heats up. Controlling shareholder Shari Redstone is reportedly eager to make a deal. Redstone controls Paramount through her company National Amusements. Recently, Redstone held talks with David Ellison’s Skydance, which is backed by Gerry Cardinale’s investment firm RedBird, according to people familiar with the matter.

Paramount, whose assets include its namesake movie studio as well as broadcast network CBS, is carrying a hefty debt load, as well.

Meanwhile, Warner Bros. Discovery, the result of a merger between Warner Media and Discovery, has been slashing costs and attacking its debt levels under Zaslav. The company has since said its streaming business has become profitable while other streamers, outside of leader Netflix, try to reverse losses.

Last month, Zaslav and Liberty Media’s John Malone, a Warner Bros. Discovery shareholder and board member, appeared to indicate that the company was preparing to become a buyer within the next year or two. The broader media industry is widely considered ripe for consolidation. Media executives are worried, however, that President Joe Biden’s administration could be hostile to a big media merger.

Warner Bros. Discovery is approaching the two-year anniversary of its 2022 merger. That’s a key benchmark for Reverse Morris Trust tax reasons. It means that Warner Bros. Discovery can do another significant deal two years after the close of the previous merger.

There’s also speculation within the industry that Warner Bros. Discovery could end up in merger talks with Comcast’s NBCUniversal.

Axios previously reported the Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery talks. Warner Bros. Discovery’s stock fell more than 5% Wednesday after the news broke, while Paramount shares bounced a little off their lows.

— CNBC’s Drew Richardson contributed to this report.

Disclosure: NBCUniversal is the parent company of CNBC.

Kremlin claims ‘Russophobic outbursts’ will grip the West ahead of Russian election

The Kremlin claimed Wednesday that the West is likely to be gripped with what it described as “Russophobic outbursts” ahead of Russia’s presidential election in March 2024.

“During these Russophobic outbursts, the election campaign will definitely be the main target,” Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told Russian television channel Rossiya-24.

“They are struggling to comprehend the level of consolidation in society, the level of public support for the president even before the start of the election campaign,” Peskov told the network, according to comments published by Tass news agency.

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced last Friday that he would run for reelection as he met Russian soldiers who had fought against Ukraine. In the apparently choreographed moment on Russian television, Putin was asked by one of the war veterans to run for president again.

Putin responded by saying, “I will not hide that I have had different thoughts at different times but it is now time to make a decision,” according to comments reported by Reuters. “I understand that there is no other way.”

“I will run for the post of president,” Putin said.

Peskov told Rossiya-24 that the Kremlin had received a huge number of messages of support for the president ahead of his public phone-in on Thursday in which the president answers (highly curated) questions from the public on a variety of issues ranging from potholes to pensions.

“There [in the West] it is impossible to understand this,” Peskov said, before claiming the election campaign would be the target of unspecified “attacks.”

“Moreover, the hybrid war against us is still ongoing. In these conditions, the election campaign merely cannot but be a target for attacks. On the other hand, we have acquired some immunity against such attacks. I am sure this immunity will work,” Peskov added, without providing further detail.

— Holly Ellyatt

All you need to know about Putin’s annual phone-in and press conference

Russian President Vladimir Putin has a busy day ahead of him, with his annual “Direct Line” phone-in being combined this year with his year-end press conference, known as “Results of the Year.”

Previous events have lasted over four hours, with Putin answering up to 70 questions from the public and press. This year’s combined event begins at 9:00 a.m. London time.

The events take place against a backdrop of Putin’s decision, made last Friday, to run for office again in the March 2024 election. With little to no “non-systemic” opposition in Russia, he is highly likely to win the vote, keeping him in office until 2030.

The two-in-one press conference and “Direct Line” format was also used in 2020 when the Covid-19 pandemic gripped Russia and the rest of the world. The last combined event lasted almost four and a half fours, and the head of the state gave answers to 50 questions asked by journalists and citizens, Tass news agency noted Thursday.

This time, correspondents from federal and regional media outlets, as well as foreign journalists accredited in Russia, will be present in the hall, the state-run news agency noted.

The discussion will be moderated by Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, Channel One TV host Ekaterina Berezovskaya and Rossiya-1 journalist Pavel Zarubin.

— Holly Ellyatt